sold out after the BQ-minus-5 minutes registration wave increase in field size to 36,000 from 27,000, there will be approximately 4,500 more spots for time qualifiers than last year.  About 3,200 of those spots will remain open after the BQ minus 5 minutes registration period – but there will be 15,000 runners with a BQ time vying for those spots.  Given these numbers, the “real” Boston Qualifying time will probably be your BQ minus 4 to 4.5 minutes.  The age graded numbers for BQ minus 4 and BQ minus 5 are very similar, so the analysis of which group is impacted the most remains valid.

Qualifying for the Boston Marathon is such a common goal among runners that the slang "BQ" — short for Boston Qualifier — is heard at marathons across the country more than just about any other acronym.

In the past, to qualify to register for the Boston Marathon, a runner had to run a time faster than his or her BQ time at a qualifying marathon during the qualifying time period.

But now, running a "qualifying" time may not be enough to guarantee that a runner could register for the 2014 edition, especially with the 5,633 Nutrition - Weight Loss.

For 2013, registration opened first to those runners who had beaten their qualifying times by 20 minutes or more, then to those who had beaten their times by 10 minutes or more, then 5 minutes, then registration opened to everyone who had run a qualifying time.

Age BQ Men These are the Toughest Races In the World BQ Women BQ -5 Women
18-34 3hrs 05min 3hrs 00min 3hrs 35min 3hrs 30min
35-39 3hrs 10min 3hrs 05min 3hrs 40min 3hrs 35min
40-44 3hrs 15min 3hrs 10min 3hrs 45min 3hrs 40min
45-49 3hrs 25min 3hrs 20min 3hrs 55min 3hrs 50min
50-54 3hrs 30min 3hrs 25min 4hrs 00min 3hrs 55min
55-59 3hrs 40min 3hrs 35min 4hrs 10min 4hrs 05min
60-64 3hrs 55min 3hrs 50min 4hrs 25min 4hrs 20min
65-69 4hrs 10min 4hrs 05min 4hrs 40min 4hrs 35min
70-74 4hrs 25min 4hrs 20min 4hrs 55min 4hrs 50min
75-79 4hrs 40min 4hrs 35min 5hrs 10min 5hrs 05min
80 and over 4hrs 55min 4hrs 50min 5hrs 25min 5hrs 20min

The 2013 Boston Marathon was, These are the Toughest Races In the World, Labor Day Shoe Deals RW+ Membership Benefits, it will sell out before registration opens to all qualifiers.

In 2014, its very possible that it will be 100% sold out 53% sold out after the BQ-minus-5 minutes registration wave. In 2014, it's very possible that it will be 100% sold out.

This made me wonder, if the 2014 Boston Marathon sells out at BQ-minus-5, which age group will suffer the worst increase in entrance difficulty? And who is getting off (relatively) easy? Using Age Grading percentage (with the men's Age Grade adjusted by a factor of .92), the following chart looks at the current BQ difficulty, the BQ-minus-5 difficulty, and the difference between the two.

Age

Age Grade
Percent -
Male BQ
(92 percent)

 Age Grade
Percent -
BQ -5 Men
(92 percent)		 Age Grade
Percent -
Female BQ		 Age Grade
Percent -
How Tough Will It Be to Qualify for the 2014 Boston Marathon		 Male Change Female Change
18-34 62.12 63.85 62.98 64.48 1.73 1.50
35-39 60.49 62.12 62.43 63.89 1.63 1.46
40-44 60.39 61.98 63.18 64.62 1.59 1.44
45-49 59.91 61.40 63.93 65.32 1.49 1.39
50-54 61.10 62.59 66.62 68.04 1.49 1.42
55-59 61.05 62.48 68.36 69.75 1.43 1.39
60-64 59.97 61.27 69.27 70.60 1.31 1.33
65-69 59.28 60.49 71.19 72.48 1.21 1.29
70-74 58.98 60.11 74.58 75.87 1.13 1.29
75-79 59.64 60.72 79.98 81.29 1.08 1.31
80 and over 62.47 63.54 88.41 89.79 1.08 1.38

Men under the age of 34 suffer the highest increase in age grade percentage, going up 1.73 points. Overall, the average age grade percentage to run Boston will be 1.38 points harder — coincidentally the same amount for women and men, as a whole.

For men, the younger you are, the more difficult it will be to run a time fast enough to register for Boston. For women, the difficulty increase is more spread out — but older women are adding difficulty to an already brutally difficult task — for women 80 and over, the age graded BQ time was already 88.41%.

UPDATE 8/30/2013: With the, and be able to register for it, here's hoping your good luck shaves an extra five minutes off your marathon time!

Related:
Boston marathon results