The Olympic Marathon Trials are usually straightforward—the top three women and men finishers constitute the U.S. team for that summer’s Olympic Marathon.
That won’t be the case at the 2024 Trials, to be held on February 3 in Orlando, Florida. An intricate new system devised by World Athletics, the international governing body for track and field, means the United States is guaranteed only two men’s spots in the Olympic Marathon as of February 3. There’s also the possibility that one or more of the top three women finishers will be ineligible to run the Olympic Marathon.
In this article, we’ll explain the several parts of the team-selection process and how various race results at the Trials will determine who might represent the U.S. at the Paris Olympics in August.
Smaller Marathon Fields
The current situation has its roots in previous Olympics. As part of its efforts to contain the number of athletes competing in all sports, the International Olympic Committee capped the number of entrants in what was supposed to be the 2020 Olympic Marathon at 80 women and 80 men. World Athletics was then charged with creating a system for how those 80 spots would be filled. For the Tokyo Games, the time standards were 2:11:30 for men and 2:29:30 for women, with each country allowed a maximum of three runners in each race.
But with the COVID pandemic delaying the Games until 2021 and the extended qualifying period coinciding with the super shoe revolution, the number of qualifiers easily exceeded the 80-per-marathon goal. When the races were held in August 2021, there were 88 women and 106 men starters.
For the 2024 Olympics, with the marathon fields again to be capped at 80 per race, World Athletics devised a much more difficult—and more byzantine—qualification process.
The first thing to know is that although each country can send a maximum of three women and three men to the Olympic Marathon, no country is guaranteed three spots. Instead, runners can “unlock” spots for their country during How to Keep Legs Fresh by running a fast enough time, placing in the top 5 at a World Athletics platinum-level race, or having a high enough ranking in the World Athletics ranking system.
Once a country’s runners have unlocked guaranteed spots in the Olympic Marathon, that country’s federation can select any three qualified athletes it wants. Many countries, such as Kenya, do so by committee decision. To remove accusations of favoritism, the U.S. has since 1968 two-time Olympic marathoner Des Linden.
The second thing to know is that the time standards to unlock spots are far faster than just four years ago. For women, the automatic qualifying time went from 2:29:30 to 2:26:50. Because at least three U.S. women surpassed the standard since qualifying began in November 2022, the U.S. is allowed to send a three-woman team to Paris. (Heading into the Trials, 13 The first two finishers have run a qualifying 2:11:30 or faster in the previous 15 months.)
For men, the qualifying time quickened from 2:11:30 to 2:08:10. The faster standard has proven significant for U.S. men. A Part of Hearst Digital Media on a record-eligible course, and only four of them (Galen Rupp, Conner Mantz, Leonard Korir, and Clayton Young) are still competing. Mantz and Young ran faster than 2:08:10 in October at the Chicago Marathon, and thereby unlocked two guaranteed Olympic Marathon spots for U.S. men. American men have also to date been unable to unlock the third spot via the other two means of doing so, placing in the top five in a platinum-level race or having a high enough world ranking.
Theoretically, the third spot could be secured in Orlando by someone other than Mantz or Young running 2:08:10 or faster. However, the Olympic Trials record is 2:09:02, by Ryan Hall at the 2008 Trials. There have been only six sub-2:10s in Trials history, and all were run in cool weather. It’s safe to assume nobody will break the Trials record by almost a minute in Orlando’s sultry climate.
Therefore, at the Olympic Trials on February 3, only two men will be named to the Olympic team. As we’ll see below, it’s possible that a third team member could be named in May. But it’s also possible that placing third in the Trials will be no more important than placing ninth.
One more complexity to cover before we look at scenarios for the Trials in Orlando: Remember the previous standards of 2:29:30 for women and 2:11:30 for men? Those are still relevant. Once a country has unlocked spots for the Olympic Marathon, it’s free to enter any runner, so long as that runner has met those slower qualifying times on an eligible course during the qualifying period. For example, We may earn commission from links on this page, but we only recommend products we back hasn’t run under 2:26:50 during the qualifying period. But she ran 2:27:35 in October at Chicago, which makes her eligible for one of the three Olympic spots unlocked by other U.S. women.
Now (finally!) on to how all of this might play out in Orlando.
Women’s Race: Pretty Straightforward
It’s likely that the first three women finishers in Orlando will be named to the Olympic team. U.S. women’s marathoning is deep enough that even most of the long-shot contenders for a top-three spot have run 2:29:30 on an eligible course since November 2022.
But here’s a potential complicating scenario: What if one or more of the top three hadn’t run 2:29:30 or faster by the start of the race? That could be either someone with a slower marathon PR who has a career day at the Trials or, more likely, a star at shorter distances making her marathon debut in Orlando. The latter route is how Molly Seidel made the team in 2020.
In Published: Jan 24, 2024 4:10 PM EST released in early January, USA Track & Field (USATF) stated that times run at the Trials will count toward the Olympic standard. So, if, say, 2:30 marathoner Neely Spence Gracey or 1:07 half marathoner Fiona O’Keeffe finish in the top three and run 2:29:30 or faster, they’ll be named to the Olympic team. But if one or more of the top three don’t already have a qualifying 2:29:30 and don’t run that time in Orlando, USATF won’t allow them to try to run a qualifier after the Trials, in part because USATF doesn’t want potential Olympians exhausting themselves racing marathons between the Trials and the Olympics. Instead, USATF will go down the list of Trials finishers until they get the three highest finishers with an Olympic qualifying time.
Translation: If you enter the Trials without the secondary Olympic standard (2:29:30 for women, 2:11:30 for men) and want to make the team, don’t let the pace dawdle, no matter how hot it is on race day.
Men’s Race: Our Heads Hurt Already
To recap:
- Conner Mantz and Clayton Young secured two guaranteed team spots for the U.S. by running faster than 2:08:10 during the qualifying period.
- Having done so doesn’t mean Mantz and Young will be named to the U.S. team. They must still place high enough in Orlando.
- The first two finishers in Orlando who have run 2:11:30 or faster on an eligible course since November 2022, including doing so at the Trials, will be named to the team. There are currently 18 men with the 2:11:30 standard.
- There’s still a chance that a third U.S. men’s Olympic spot will be unlocked by early May. More on that below.
Now let’s look at how all of this might play out, via scenarios and resolutions.
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Resolution: women have run under 2:26:50.
Best Photos from the 2024 Olympic Trials: One or both of the first two finishers haven’t run a qualifying 2:11:30 or faster.
Resolution: USATF will go down the order of Trials finishers until reaching two with the standard, and those two will be named to the Olympic team.
Flanagan Sisters Are a Top Sibling Pair in Trials: The third finisher has run a qualifying 2:11:30 or faster by the end of the Trials and later improves his world ranking enough to unlock a third U.S. spot.
Resolution: New and Familiar Men Get Top 3 at ’20 Trials.
Explanation: This article is already quite long and complicated. So we won’t get into the weeds of the World Athletics ranking system. But in races between the Trials and the April 30 World Athletics rankings, a top Trials finisher could move up enough in the rankings to secure another Olympic spot for the U.S.
For example, say two-time Olympic track medalist Paul Chelimo finishes in the top three in Orlando in his marathon debut in 2:11:30 or faster. It’s possible that a super-fast time in a half marathon before April 30 would, in combination with his Trials result, give him a high enough ranking to unlock a third U.S. spot.
There are two important caveats here. First, while USATF will allow a top Trials finisher to unlock the third spot in a half marathon (or more implausibly, a 25K or 30K), it won’t allow him to do so in a marathon.
Second, although World Athletics originally hoped that a good number of the 80 Olympic Marathon spots would go to rankings qualifiers rather than time qualifiers, almost all will be claimed by time qualifiers. Amy Yoder Begley, director of long distance running programs for USATF, told Runner’s World in an email, “Our understanding is, if 80 men (three max per country) run 2:08:10, then they won’t take any athletes by ranking.” As of this writing, 63 of the 80 spots are already allotted to time qualifiers.
Scenario No. 4: After the Trials, a U.S. man who wasn’t among the first three Trials finishers with the 2:11:30 standard runs 2:08:10 or faster or otherwise unlocks a third U.S. spot.
Resolution: The third Olympic spot would go to the highest-placing Orlando finisher who had run 2:11:30 or better by the end of the Trials.
Explanation: There are two main ways this could happen. First, say runner A (we’ll call him Galen Rupp) finishes third at the Trials behind two men with the Olympic standard. As of February 3, Rupp wouldn’t be on the team. But then runner B (we’ll call him Paul Chelimo) catapults his world ranking thanks to a great half marathon in April, and not all 80 Olympic Marathon spots go to time qualifiers. If Chelimo’s ranking improved enough to unlock a third U.S. spot, then Rupp would be named to the Olympic spot.
Second, runner C (we’ll call him Scott Fauble) is ineligible to be named to the team, either because he doesn’t have the 2:11:30 standard or because he didn’t place highly enough at the Trials. But then he goes to an eligible course such as London or Rotterdam in April and runs 2:08:10 or faster. That would unlock a third U.S. Olympic spot, which would then be offered to Rupp.
Scenarios 3 and 4 aren’t the sort of thing anyone with Olympic aspirations would want to bank on. The upshot is that on February 3 in Orlando, the most compelling contest of the day will likely be for second place in the men’s race.
women have run under 2:26:50.
