Securing a spot in the Boston Marathon is a bucket list goal for many runners. That's because to get a place, you need to get a qualifying time – that's no easy feat, and doesn't even guarantee you entry. Every year, tens of thousands of runners apply and, as popularity increases, cut-off times for acceptance get even more competitive, with places filled from the fastest first. According to Outline Online, in 2023, the unofficial cut-off times for acceptance were five minutes and 29 seconds faster than the official qualifying times.
But new research has uncovered trends in what separates those who qualify for Boston from those who don't – and includes insights into everything from the training methods of BQ runners to their choice of qualifying race and their pacing strategies.
What are the Boston Marathon qualifying times?
To qualify for Boston, athletes must meet the time standard which corresponds to their age and gender. To be eligible, a race must be on a course certified by a national body, such as England Athletics, USATF, AIMS or other country's equivalents.
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As mentioned, running a qualifying time does not guarantee entry, as the number of people submitting qualifying times can exceed the number of spaces available in the race. That's what happened this year, with the race receiving 33,058 applications but accepting just 22,019.
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How can I give myself the best chance of qualifying?
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Research conducted by Outside Online and Strava looked at Strava training data of BQ runners training for several big 2022 marathons: Berlin, Chicago, Marine Corps, New York City, California International Marathon (CIM) and Valencia. It found that the CIM and Valencia marathons had the highest percentage of runners qualifying for Boston, with 32% of the field getting a qualifying time. These both have fast courses, with Valencia having a speedy average finish time of 3:28, mainly due it's wide and extremely flat course.
Only 6% of NYC runners, however, hit the Boston standard – although 2022's soaring temperatures radically affected finishing times – while the Marine Corps Marathon had a similar qualifying rate. Chicago and Berlin sat somewhere in the middle with 18% of runners qualifying.
So if you want to run a fast marathon, look to the likes of Valencia, CIM, Berlin and Chicago - or any super flat course.
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From the data, the strongest predictor of BQ success was a negative split (running the second half of the race faster than the first). Unsurprisingly, Valencia had the highest percentage of negative splits, while New York had the lowest – with just 3% of runners clocking a negative split (but again that's likely down to the unseasonably hot temperatures). Meanwhile, CIM and Berlin both had a 16 percent negative split rate. The lesson? Don't go out too hard in the first half of the race and unleash your speed after halfway.
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The data also revealed that those who ran their easy days 30% slower than marathon goal pace were 42% more likely to hit their goal than those with easy days only 10% slower than goal pace.
So, if you’re aiming to run a 2:37 marathon (roughly 6:00/mile), you should run easy runs closer to 7:50 pace (a 30% differential) than to 6:40 pace (10%). And if you’re aiming for a 4:20 marathon (10:00/mile), your easy days should be closer to 13:00/mile than 11:00/mile).
Interestingly, the research also found that runners who displayed more discipline in keeping their easy runs easy were those who had more marathon experience. Runners who finished in 2:30, on average, ran their easy days 29% slower than goal pace, while 3:30 marathon runners, on average, ran their easy days just 11% slower than race pace, and only 20% hit their goal finish time.
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The research also uncovered that experience is a key indicator of a marathoner's speed. Those who finished one of the seven marathons between 2:30 and 2:59, on average, had completed six previous marathons, while runners who finished between 4:00 and 4:30 had completed four previous marathons.
